In Conversation: COP26 in Glasgow: What happened, what it means, and what was missed

As part of the In Conversation Series, the Environmental Governance Lab hosted a panel discussion on November 16, 2021, regarding the outcomes and implications of COP26 in Glasgow for global climate governance.

Panelists

Jennifer Allan is a Lecturer at Cardiff University and Strategic Adviser and Team Leader with Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

Amalie Wilkinson is a dedicated climate justice advocate and a second-year undergraduate student at the University of Toronto.

Raul Salas Reyes is a senior PhD candidate in the Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences at the University of Toronto Scarborough.

Kimberly R. Marion Suiseeya is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and the Environmental Policy and Culture program at Northwestern University.

Moderator: Matthew Hoffmann is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, Co-Director of the Environmental Governance Lab.

 What happened

Postponed for one year due to the pandemic, the stakes were high at COP26 to achieve concrete and robust outcomes. Beginning with high-level sessions, world leaders announced updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net zero pledges in the opening week of negotiations. However, panelists noted that these pledges are still insufficient to reach the objective of limiting global warming to 1.5-degrees and are projected to only amount to limiting warming to 2.4-degrees as a best-case scenario.

Negotiations ramped up in COP26’s second week around cooperative aspects of climate governance, including the Glasgow Climate Pact—a new global expression of climate principles—as well as language around a phase down of coal and other fossil fuels. The Paris Agreement implementation rulebook was also largely completed, which includes time frame, transparency, reporting, and measurement requirements. Panelists noted the significance of these achievements, but also acknowledged a growing sentiment of broken trust among developing countries and non-Party delegations due to slow progress and a lack of strong ambition from developed countries.

What was missing

Despite significant progress on many technical issues, panelists noted that COP26 retained a high degree of continuity with past negotiations. Most negotiators had little mandate to discuss loss and damages associated with climate change—a critical issue for less developed countries and small island states that remains largely unaddressed. Similarly, developed countries fought hard against the creation of a multilaterally agreed-upon definition of climate finance which was left to future negotiations.

Important questions around climate justice, youth inclusion, and indigenous rights were also left unanswered at COP26. Panelists noted that multilateral decisions continue to sacrifice the most vulnerable countries and communities: climate justice should not be negotiable. Discussants noted that while substantial resources are dedicated to technical and economic solutions, limited attention is being paid to developing social solutions to address the impacts of climate change. Panelists also acknowledged that, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, COP26 entailed particular and disproportionate risks for indigenous delegates who attended in person.

COP26 also failed to adequately include youth voices in both deliberations and outcomes of negotiations, despite strong momentum-building and several specific proposals developed through the Mock COP26, Youth for Climate Action, and the Conference of Youth. However, panelists noted that COP continues to be a critical forum for convening non-governmental actors and building international solidarity within transnational social movements, including youth movements.

What it means

A recognition of the importance of science for effective climate action and policymaking was at the forefront of deliberations, representing a significant departure from previous negotiations. Panelists predicted that this discursive shift is likely to continue to play an important role in future negotiations.

As global climate governance moves more fully into the implementation phases of the Paris Agreement, panelists warned about the potential for technical discussions to become less scrutinized by outside observers compared with political level negotiations. Discussants agreed that continued scrutiny will be essential to ensure countries remain accountable for accurate implementation of their NDCs.

Finally, panelists noted the importance that the Presidency plays in negotiations; with COP27 to be hosted by Egypt, panelists noted that there will likely be greater attention paid to climate justice and climate financing in the following year.